SAG Nomination Surprises

At last, the first guild nominations have arrived, and since the actors are by far the largest branch of the Academy, their choices for the Screen Actors’ Guild awards are always worth paying attention to. Last year, SAG and Oscar ended up agreeing on 19 out of 20 acting nominees, with only Diane Kruger of “Inglourious Basterds” getting bumped in favor of Maggie Gyllenhaal in “Crazy Heart” come January. I think there might be a few more changes this year, at least if my predictions hold; there’s a good handful of prominent names in the race sitting on the sidelines after the SAG announcement this morning.

First off, Hilary Swank pulled off an upset nod in the Best Actress category for “Conviction,” leaving Lesley Manville and Michelle Williams out in the cold (Williams’ co-star Ryan Gosling also on the outside looking in, as the guild unsurprisingly went for legends Robert Duvall and Jeff Bridges instead). Somewhere, Annette Bening is breaking into a cold sweat. But she shouldn’t worry, and neither should fans of Williams/Manville; I doubt this will translate into a third Oscar nomination for Swank.

Meanwhile, this was the perfect place for “Winter’s Bone” co-star John Hawkes to make his big play in the Supporting Actor category: he’s the kind of hard-working, long-unrecognized industry veteran that SAG loves to reward (i.e. Ruby Dee in “American Gangster”). Wonderful that he’s turned into a legitimate contender. But, love for Hawkes and Jeremy Renner of “The Town” meant that there was no room for young Andrew Garfield, whose status in that category seems a little less assured. Surprising, since even a month ago he seemed like the lock while Jesse Eisenberg was on the fringe, but now the tables seem to have turned as the Supporting Actor category gets more and more crowded. I know at least one of you readers will be quite upset by this turn of events, but a nomination is hardly out of the question: Oscar likes a flashy young player more than SAG does.

Which makes it interesting that Mila Kunis made yet another appearance in the Supporting Actress category. I had thought Dianne Wiest would show up in that slot – seems like “Rabbit Hole” hasn’t really taken up with voters beyond Nicole Kidman after all. But there’s still Jacki Weaver to contend with, so don’t write in Kunis for the Oscar nod just yet.

In the ensemble category, “The Town” could have received a nice bump here, but instead “Black Swan” and “The Fighter” asserted themselves as the “it” movies of the moment, while “The Kids Are All Right” continues to bounce back nicely from earlier snubs in the season.

Check out the full list:

Best Ensemble:

• Black Swan
• The Fighter
• The Kids Are All Right
• The King’s Speech
• The Social Network

Best Actor:

• Jeff Bridges, “True Grit”
• Robert Duvall, “Get Low”
• Jesse Eisenberg, “The Social Network”
• Colin Firth, “The King’s Speech”
• James Franco, “127 Hours”

Best Actress:

• Annette Bening, “The Kids Are All Right”
• Nicole Kidman, “Rabbit Hole”
• Jennifer Lawrence, “Winter’s Bone”
• Natalie Portman, “Black Swan”
• Hilary Swank, “Conviction”

Best Supporting Actor:

• Christian Bale, “The Fighter”
• John Hawkes, “Winter’s Bone”
• Jeremy Renner, “The Town”
• Mark Ruffalo, “The Kids Are All Right”
• Geoffrey Rush, “The King’s Speech”

Best Supporting Actress:

• Amy Adams, “The Fighter”
• Helena Bonham Carter, “The King’s Speech”
• Mila Kunis, “Black Swan”
• Melissa Leo, “The Fighter”
• Hailee Steinfeld, “True Grit”

Best Stunt Ensemble:

• Green Zone
• Inception
• Robin Hood