Oscar Predictions: 11/9

It’s been a while since I ran down some updated Oscar predictions, so it’s about time to look at the changing landscape. But first, a couple of quick news posts:

• Hugh Jackman, apparently the first choice of this year’s producers to host the Oscar ceremony, officially turned down the gig due to schedule conflicts with filming “Wolverine 2.” Cue rampant speculation on who will/should be asked next. My two bits: Neil Patrick Harris would be awesome but is kind of tainted by his unexplainable involvement in last year’s remarkably forgettable opening number. And while Jackman’s song-and-dance routine worked pretty well with the overall production in the 2009 ceremony, I still prefer a comedian. But you need someone who can walk a very fine line with their routine – you don’t want to be too safe, the way Ellen DeGeneres leaned, or downright hostile like Chris Rock. I still probably prefer Steve Martin, but by himself, please. If you MUST go with the dumb two-host routine again, please please please pick Tina Fey instead of Alec Baldwin. Martin and Fey’s presentation of the Original Screenplay award at the ’09 ceremony remains one of the high points of the Oscar decade.
• Robert de Niro will receive this year’s HFPA Cecil B. DeMille Award at the Golden Globes. Deserved, obviously.
• We got a poster debut for the upcoming March adaptation of “Jane Eyre” by indie fave Cary Fukunaga (“Sin Nombre”), starring Mia Wasikowska, Michael Fassbender, Jamie Bell and Judi Dench. Still hate the book, but love the poster. THAT’S how you do the one-sheet for a prestige costume pic:

All right, let’s get down to business. “Another Year” is losing some buzz after getting snubbed for what seemed like slam-dunk nominations at the British Independent Film and European Film Awards. Again, Mike Leigh is generally more popular over here in the States anyway, and the critics could easily light some fire under this one again, but until I see some nominations in peripheral awards, I’m nervous about its chances. Definitely a sure-fire writing and acting contender, but picture and director are starting to look fuzzy. Meanwhile, “The Fighter” is getting screened for the Academy tomorrow, so we might finally figure out whether the advance buzz is deserved or not. My gut is telling me this is going to be our big prestige flop of the season, but we’ll see.

Overall, it’s looking like a more indie-friendly year, with few $100 million movies looking like strong contenders (“Inception,” “Toy Story 3,” maybe “The Town,” “The Social Network” if it can scrabble it’s way to the $100 mil benchmark). Compare that to last year, when our final lineup included “Avatar,” “District 9,” “Up,” “Inglourious Basterds” and “The Blind Side,” and “Star Trek” and “The Hangover” were (for some reason) considered contenders. Assuming the expansion to ten nominees was meant to encourage populist thinking, it will be interesting to see if the Academy stretches for some blockbuster nominees or reverts to toiling in obscurity.

Picture:

• The King’s Speech
• The Social Network
• 127 Hours
• Inception
• The Kids Are All Right
• Toy Story 3
• True Grit
• The Way Back
• Winter’s Bone
• Made in Dagenham

Director:

• David Fincher, “The Social Network”
• Tom Hooper, “The King’s Speech”
• Danny Boyle, “127 Hours”
• Ethan, Joel Coen, “True Grit”
• Peter Weir, “The Way Back”

Actor:

• Colin Firth, “The King’s Speech”
• James Franco, “127 Hours”
• Jeff Bridges, “True Grit”
• Robert Duvall, “Get Low”
• Jesse Eisenberg, “The Social Network”

Actress:

• Annette Bening, “The Kids Are All Right”
• Jennifer Lawrence, “Winter’s Bone”
• Natalie Portman, “Black Swan”
• Nicole Kidman, “Rabbit Hole”
• Lesley Manville, “Another Year”

Supporting Actor:

• Ed Harris, “The Way Back”
• Geoffrey Rush, “The King’s Speech”
• Mark Ruffalo, “The Kids Are All Right”
• Andrew Garfield, “The Social Network”
• Sam Rockwell, “Conviction”

Supporting Actress:

• Miranda Richardson, “Made in Dagenham”
• Helena Bonham Carter, “The King’s Speech”
• Melissa Leo, “The Fighter”
• Dianne Wiest, “Rabbit Hole”
• Elle Fanning, “Somewhere”

Original Screenplay:

• David Speidler, “The King’s Speech”
• Stuart Blumberg, Lisa Cholodenko, “The Kids Are All Right”
• Mike Leigh, “Another Year”
• Christopher Nolan, “Inception”
• Derek Cianfrance, Joey Curtis, Cami Delavigne, “Blue Valentine”

Adapted Screenplay:

• Aaron Sorkin, “The Social Network”
• Michael Arndt, “Toy Story 3”
• Danny Boyle, Simon Beaufoy, “127 Hours”
• Ethan and Joel Coen, “True Grit”
• Peter Weir, “The Way Back”

Original Score:

• Rachel Portman, “Never Let Me Go”
• Randy Newman, “Toy Story 3”
• Hans Zimmer, “Inception”
• Alexandre Desplat, “The King’s Speech”
• Carter Burwell, “True Grit”

Cinematography (new addition!):

• Roger Deakins, “True Grit”
• Enrique Chodiak, Anthony Dod Mantle, “127 Hours”
• Wally Pfister, “Inception”
• Danny Cohen, “The King’s Speech”
• Russell Boyd, “The Way Back”