Oscar Predictions: 10/6

Another flurry of activity in the past couple days. Let’s run it all down before getting to my updated predictions.

• Peter Weir’s “The Way Back” is finally confirmed as a contender this year, with a week-long qualifying run in NY/LA planned for December. The cost of putting together a major awards campaign had made the studio take pause, but having “The Way Back” in the mix is definitely a bit of a game-changer. Weir is a favorite of the Academy, and his film should be a strong contender in the Picture, Director and Adapted Screenplay categories. There’s also been high praise all around for the ensemble cast; if anyone emerges to secure an individual nomination, I’m betting it will be Ed Harris. In fact, with the “respected industry veteran who’s never won an Oscar” card up his sleeve, Harris stands a good chance of riding all the way to victory. Of course, that’s a sight-unseen prediction, so we’ll see.
• Peter Jackson finally came to an agreement with MGM and New Line to direct the two “Hobbit” films, replacing Guillermo del Toro. It’s about freaking time. Filming should begin very soon in New Zealand, and the first film is still slated for a December 2012 release, featuring (wait for it…) eye-popping 3-D! I wish I were joking.
• Sony Pictures Classics was once again out of the gate first when it came to sending out screeners to Academy members. This week, voters received a DVD of “Animal Kingdom,” hopefully a showcase for Supporting Actress candidate Jacki Weaver. SPC was the first to send out screeners two years ago when they mailed out “Frozen River,” a strategy which paid off big-time with two unexpected nominations.
• The official trailer for Julie Taymor’s “The Tempest” was released, confirming suspicions that Taymor has probably gone over the top with the CGI. It’s hard to see any kind of unified vision of the play here, besides Helen Mirren looking bad-ass.

Anyway, I waited a week longer than usual for this next round of predictions because, well, they hadn’t changed until this week. At all. But, with “The Way Back” charging back into the picture and “The Social Network” doing strong business, some tweaking was in order. I still fear a “Blind Side”-esque charge from “Secretariat,” but for now it’s looking like (*fingers crossed*) quality might win over the Academy this year? Maybe? We can hope.

Best Picture:

• 127 Hours
• Another Year
• The Fighter
• Inception
• The Kids Are All Right
• The King’s Speech
• The Social Network
• Toy Story 3
• True Grit
• The Way Back

Best Director:

• Danny Boyle, 127 Hours
• David Fincher, The Social Network
• Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech
• Mike Leigh, Another Year
• Peter Weir, The Way Back

Best Actor:

• Jeff Bridges, True Grit
• Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
• Colin Firth, The King’s Speech
• James Franco, 127 Hours
• Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine

Best Actress:

• Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
• Sally Hawkins, Made in Dagenham
• Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone
• Lesley Manville, Another Year
• Natalie Portman, Black Swan

Best Supporting Actor:

• Christian Bale, The Fighter
• Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
• Ed Harris, The Way Back
• Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
• Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech

Best Supporting Actress:

• Helena Bonham Carter, The King’s Speech
• Elle Fanning, Somewhere
• Barbara Hershey, Black Swan
• Melissa Leo, The Fighter
• Miranda Richardson, Made in Dagenham

Best Original Score:

• Alexandre Desplat, “The King’s Speech”
• Randy Newman, Toy Story 3
• Rachel Portman, Never Let Me Go
• Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, “The Social Network”
• Hans Zimmer, Inception

Best Original Screenplay:

• Stuart Blumberg, Lisa Cholodenko, “The Kids Are All Right”
• Derek Cianfrance, Joey Curtis, Cami Delavigne, “Blue Valentine”
• Mike Leigh, “Another Year”
• Christopher Nolan, “Inception”
• David Speidler, “The King’s Speech”

Best Adapted Screenplay:

• Michael Arndt, “Toy Story 3”
• Danny Boyle, Simon Beaufoy, “127 Hours”
• Ethan, Joel Coen, “True Grit”
• Aaron Sorkin, “The Social Network”
• Peter Weir, “The Way Back”